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You may have seen one of
the recent ads on the radio or television advertising, "You can
make a fortune trading commodities/futures!" These ads are famous
more for what they don’t tell you than for what they do tell you.
Commodities trading is really
futures trading on a given commodity, such as gold, sugar, wheat,
cotton, or cattle. Commodities/futures are not considered securities
and therefore are not regulated by regulatory bodies such as the
NASD or the SEC. Rather, a separate self-regulatory body called
the National Futures Association (the NFA) regulates commodities.
Commodities trading is one
of the oldest types of contracts there is, dating back to the time
when silk traders would travel to the Orient, but due to the long
trip by sail, a merchant would forward contract (sell) his silk,
thus assuring himself a profit when he returned months later with
the goods. Today, this forward hedging of commodities is still a
very important aspect of commodities and futures trading. One of
the more recent uses is portfolio managers employing investment
contracts (S&P futures) to hedge portfolios. But the ads and the
brokers aren’t soliciting you for hedging purposes; they are enticing
you to speculate.
And speculate is the proper
word, because in commodities trading, you can make and lose fortunes
overnight. Commodities is one of the few types of investments where
you can lose more money than you invested (naked stock options is
another type). Recently, there was a Dean Witter arbitration where
a client opened up a commodities account and said he was willing
to trade and lose a maximum of $50,000. The commodities form asked
what his trading limit was and in numerous places, he stated that
his limit was $50,000. Yet, in a matter of months, he lost $83,000.
At the arbitration, the broker, the manager and the compliance officer
all agreed that there is no trading limit for commodities, even
though the trading limit is stated on the forms. You cannot control
or limit the losses in commodities.
A number of factors make
commodities more risky than other investments. One is the fact that
it’s an investment that can fluctuate in value depending on whether
or not it rains on the other side of the country. If you think it’s
hard predicting the stock market, try predicting the weather.
Another reason commodities
are so risky is that the leverage (similar to margin) is much greater
than it is with stocks. You can control as much as $100,000 in commodities
with only a few thousand dollars of investment. Therefore, a small
price change in the underlying commodity can exaggerate either the
profit or loss on the investment.
Commodities have limit
moves. That’s the maximum daily amount a commodity can move in price
within a given day. On its face, this might sound conservative;
stocks don’t have limits and can move up or down limitlessly. One
of the reasons for a limit on commodities is because commodities
are heavily margined. It is possible to lose great sums in a matter
of days despite the daily limit move, because if the commodity moves
the limit, there’s an excellent chance that you can’t make a trade
to cut your losses. If the commodity goes "lock limit" for 3 days
or more, you may see yourself losing vast sums with no way to get
out.
If you open an commodities/futures
trading account, you will need to do it with someone who is licensed
in this area. A typical stockbroker cannot trade commodities for
you without an NASD Series 3 license. In a commodities account,
anticipate roughly three times the number of documents required
for you to review and sign, contrasted with a regular brokerage
account. There will be a host of warnings proclaiming that commodities
trading is very risky and that you can lose all of your investment
and then some. These disclosures make it tougher to sue, even if
you invested and lost your child’s college education and even if
the broker outright lied to you.
If you have a hunch and are
determined to trade commodities, one way you can do it and potentially
limit your losses, is to trade options on commodities. As in stock
options, the maximum amount you can lose is the amount of options
you purchase. But even with this strategy, keep two things in mind.
One, make sure that you only purchase options and don’t sell any,
because selling a naked option is no less risky than owning the
underlying futures contract. Second, if you think it’s hard to make
money trading futures, it’s even harder trading commodity options;
not only do you need to guess right, but timing is more crucial
than with futures.
Tracy Pride Stoneman is an
attorney specializing in investment related complaints. Email her
at Tracy@InvestorFraud.com. Preparation of this article was assisted
by Douglas J. Schulz, a registered investment advisor and former
stockbroker in Colorado Springs.
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